According to the forecasts from Meteo France, the most critical point of the disturbance is expected to coincide with the start of the race.
It now seems almost certain that tomorrow’s race in Melbourne will be run on a wet track. Some teams, including Ferrari, have opted for a higher downforce setup, sacrificing qualifying for better race management, specifically with the wet conditions in mind. The latest forecasts predict a 90% chance of rain at the Melbourne circuit, which is why the FIA is currently considering several solutions to avoid disrupting the regular course of the race.
According to Marc Gené, the FIA officials are considering delaying the start of the race by an hour, as the most critical part of the disturbance is expected to occur right at the beginning of the race. In that case, the Grand Prix could begin at 4:00 PM local time (6:00 AM in Italy), ensuring conditions that would allow the race to be held in complete safety.
Regarding the forecasts, Meteo France reports that the rain is expected to arrive around noon, with precipitation ranging from 3mm to 10mm, and a southeast wind that could reach speeds of up to 50 km/h. The temperatures will also drop significantly compared to today, with the maximum expected to reach 23°C, decreasing to 19°C by the end of the race.
There have been few wet-weather precedents in Australia: notably, the 2010 race when Jenson Button won under wet conditions, and in 2013 when the second and third qualifying sessions were postponed to Sunday morning due to a heavy downpour. In 2005, rain played a major role in qualifying, with drivers taking to the track in dry conditions for their typical individual qualifying laps, which worked to the benefit of Giancarlo Fisichella, who secured pole position that year.