High chances of a wet race on Sunday, few long runs completed.
We’ve reached the third Sprint weekend of the season, after the rounds in Shanghai and Miami: this means that drivers had only one free practice session yesterday to find the right setup ahead of qualifying for the Sprint Race.
Right from the first laps, McLaren proved to be very fast, especially in the second sector — the most technical part of the Ardennes circuit. In fact, during Sprint Qualifying, Oscar Piastri set the absolute track record with a time of 1:40.510, beating Max Verstappen’s Red Bull by over four tenths and teammate Lando Norris by six tenths.
Red Bull made a choice completely opposite to McLaren’s: the Milton Keynes team appears to have gone for a low-downforce setup, which pays off in the first and third sectors — both featuring long straights — but causes difficulties in the more technical second sector. A very aggressive strategy, then, but one that so far hasn’t delivered the desired results.
Red Bull has therefore adopted a very similar approach to the one used at Silverstone: this strategy paid off in qualifying, with Max Verstappen even managing to take pole position in dry conditions. However, during the race, due to the rain, the low-downforce setup exposed all the limitations of the Milton Keynes car. The reigning world champion had a couple of off-track moments and a spin during the restart after the Safety Car period.
The same risk also arises in Belgium, as the chances of rain on Sunday have increased. Therefore, the low-downforce setup could pay off in qualifying, while the race, if it rains, looks set to be difficult once again for Red Bull and Max Verstappen.
Race pace analysis FP1 Belgium: yesterday’s times
For the Belgium event, Pirelli chose the C1 (Hard), C3 (Medium), and C4 (Soft) compounds, implementing the so-called “compound jump,” brought back after more than three years since the 2022 Australian Grand Prix. As mentioned, there is a fairly high chance that Sunday’s race could feature a wet track, but if it stays dry, drivers will likely opt for a two-stop strategy.
Due to the high chances of rain, there were no significant long runs in the only free practice session, except for those carried out by Red Bull and Mercedes. Additionally, the times are of limited relevance, as some drivers prefer to focus on the Sprint race, while others concentrate on Sunday’s race, resulting in very different fuel loads.
In both race simulations, it is noticeable that there was no significant performance drop-off from the medium and hard tires, although the drivers completed only a few laps.
The most significant long run was done by Mercedes, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli completing 10 laps and George Russell 9. Both drivers showed a good race pace—fast and consistent—but yesterday’s Sprint Qualifying highlighted the Silver Arrows’ limitations in single-lap pace, with Russell finishing thirteenth and Antonelli last, after a spin on his final flying lap.
PHOTO: GPKingdom, Mercedes AMG-Petronas F1 Team, McLaren, Oracle Red Bull Racing, F1.
