Is it finally Ferrari’s time in Monte Carlo? Among the favorites for the Monaco GP there is certainly the Rossa… – ANALYSIS.
The Monaco GP is one of the most anticipated rounds of the year, by fans and drivers. The prestige of the sixth seasonal round of this 2026 is indisputable and all teams aim to do well in the Principality. Formula 1 arrives at this race with an absolute dominance, namely that of Mercedes, but the forecasts for the race in Monte Carlo do not lean on their side…
The dominance of Mercedes has been clear so far, with Kimi Antonelli prevailing against his opponent and teammate George Russell, but the street track of the Principality of Monaco is rather atypical. The predominant characteristics of Brackley’s W17, in fact, do not marry perfectly with the tight corners of the Monte Carlo GP.
The recent history of the Monaco GP
In the last 10 years, the pole-to-victory conversion has been 50%, below the average of the Monegasque round. If in 2018, 2019, 2023, 2024, and 2025 the drivers who started from the first position won, a different discussion must be made for the other years, here are all the cases:
- 2015
The victory went into the hands of Nico Rosberg after Hamilton’s start from pole. The cause was a pit stop at the wrong moment for Lewis Hamilton, who was forced to hand over the first position to his teammate without managing to recover anymore. - 2016
The 2016 edition went into history for the “denied victory” by Red Bull to Daniel Ricciardo, who has always had a great feeling with the track of the Principality. The Milton Keynes squad, in fact, had botched the pit stop, lasting over 10 seconds after an absolute dominance until that moment for the Australian - 2017 and 2022
2017 and 2022 were two strategy mistakes by Ferrari. If the first cost little, as the 1-2 finish happened anyway, but with inverted drivers, in 2022 Leclerc failed to win and precisely from there he lost the decisive push for the championship. - 2021
In 2021 Leclerc was again the pole-sitter, but he failed to start due to the accident of the day before at the end of qualifying.
Who are the favorites in 2026? Ferrari, Mercedes or McLaren?
Ferrari
The Maranello squad arrives in Monte Carlo with the best intentions, after a start to the season in which the Cavallino was not as competitive as expected. The characteristics of the SF-26 are undeniably akin to the layout of Monaco: Leclerc and Hamilton are driving a car that proved to be very fast in the twisty and medium-speed sections, while acceleration and pure engine power are secondary.
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Furthermore, the two drivers have an excellent feeling with this track. Leclerc won only once against 3 pole positions, but he has always been fast among the tight corners of his home. Lewis Hamilton, instead, won 3 times in Monaco and where talent is unleashed and the car responds ready, Lewis can always give his maximum contribution.
Mercedes
Mercedes, as much as it is dominating far and wide this season, is not the number 1 candidate to win the Monaco GP. The characteristics of the W16 do not marry perfectly with the bumps of the Principality and the greatest strength of the Brackley squad has been the engine, a factor difficult to exploit in this weekend.
The Mercedes project is anyway very solid and the updates brought in the last round aimed at improving the aerodynamics and the general downforce of the car will certainly be decisive. The chassis of the Mercedes proved to be the strongest along with that of Ferrari and it will play for the victory probably with the Scuderia of Maranello.
The drivers of the silver arrows are in a fight for the World Championship and on a track that exalts talent they will surely want to demonstrate that they deserve the graduation to World champions.
McLaren
McLaren inherits the excellent characteristics of the engine and makes it its strength, precisely for this reason it will probably not be the favorite on the street track of Monte Carlo. After last year’s victory, this 2026 had no half measures: either the team brought home excellent results, or it came out of the races with very few satisfactions.
The updates of Canada did not yield the hoped-for effect: the Woking team failed to bridge the gap with Mercedes, but it will surely aim to reaffirm itself as the second force and to confirm last year’s victory.
Ferrari certainly arrives at the Monaco GP with the best auspices: the single-seater marries well with the characteristics of this race and the drivers, especially Leclerc, appreciate the circuit. The Monegasque round must serve as a motor for the continuation of the season, especially in view of the ADUO concession.
Photo: F1.com
